A moment of disappointed irritation

The finance minister makes mention of a sector that contributes 8% to the GDP and I expectantly looked at the TV.

Yet again Retail whose size is as big and bigger than some other industries and also contributed approximately 8% to the GDP was left out in the cold.

Starting from simple expectations about offset of service tax to mammoth ones like industry status, the wish list was long. But was ignored.

Sad.

Food Inflation @ 18%. What a joke!!

I received a SMS from my friend Vishy which reads as follows –

“Tur dal rates for one Kg as on 8 pm today (10/2/10) – Nilgiris Rs. 115/-, Spencer’s Rs. 99/-, More Rs. 79.98/-, Fresh – Rs. 88.45, Nadar Kadais – vary between 68 to 85. How can there be so much variation in a KVI like Tur Dal? Do people cross check amongst stores?”

When I spoke to him he was visiting wholesale markets in places like Gulbarga where Tur Dal was being sold for Rs. 38 per kilo. Smaller farmers who sell locally at villages might realize even less at Rs. 32 or so per Kilo. The talk in the wholesale markets was that the prices of Tur Dal had actually come down over the past few weeks. But at the retail end in an urban market, it was soaring!

First is that, this reflects rather poorly on chain stores who are supposed to aggregate volumes and therefore be able to influence the supply chain in order to create value for the consumers. This does not seem to be happening. These chains are at best sourcing from the millers. So, the question is that what or who is driving up the prices? And who is going to bring in changes and advancement of the supply chain if not Retail?

At least Tur Dal can be stored and inventories managed as a buffer to commodity price fluctuations. Now, take the case of a perishable like Tomato. A decade ago the farm gate price used to be Rs. 2 as compared to the Retail price of Rs. 8, while for Potato it used to be Rs.6.5 and Rs. 12. Nowadays, with the retail price being in the range of Rs. 20 odd, do you think there would have been a significant increase in the farm gate prices? Not at all.

Today the price of Hybrid Tomato was Rs. 18 and Potato was Rs. 23 and the sourcing price was only Rs. 3.50 and Rs.9. respectively. Again the point of whether the farmer is benefiting from the increase in prices is there. The Retail price rise is not even proportionately matched by the farm gate price. Today evening, the prices of Tomato and Potato had dropped to Rs. 16 and 11. Does the farmer get such low prices to buffer such huge price variations, by the others?

Why does this happen?

Consumer habit, dependence on the retailers and even some amount of apathy, leads consumers to overlook prices of items purchased from their regular store. Trust drives their habit and the same trust also ensures that they do not check the prices or the bill.

As a consumer, when was the last time you checked the price or the bill of some of these basic items?

P.S. – The Retail prices of tomato and potato have been averaged out across a few stores.

Is it Retailing?

Recently while travelling back to Chennai I was at the airport in Kochi and saw a large number of shops at the domestic terminal. After checking in I decided to explore these shops. What I saw and experienced was an eye opener and on a magnified scale seems to be the problem with most shopping malls.

There were approximately 50 odd shops and most of them were closed. That by itself is OK, given that it was only 7 a.m. But what completely flummoxed me was the sheer repetition and lack of differentiation. I counted 6 odd book shops and the balance were roughly equally divided between Kerala handicrafts, spices, etc. and Kerala Sarees, Apparel, etc.

When I tried finding some differentiation between these similar stores, there were hardly any. Similar or rather the same books, similar packets of banana chips, similar white sarees with designs and so on.

I wonder how these businesses are surviving.

I do not think they differentiate on price because the others would react to any attempts at discounting. Range seems similar. Service might be a differentiation, given that only a few were open so early. Maybe they have devised a staggered timing system where each group of shops opens at different times during the day.

Even then, it seems to be an enormous waste of retail space, inventory and other related investments to create similar shops in a confined environment.

The potential to offer a larger and more diverse range obviously exists. Similarly, I have seen several malls which have focused on getting occupancy instead of ensuring that the right retail mix is ensured for a lasting consumer value proposition.

An airport might still survive with such an approach to retailing with a worse case scenario of reduced income from this area of operation. Whereas a mall which does not ensure an optimum mix will lose out on the long run simply because that is the merchandise mix of a mall and needs as much attention as a Retailer needs to give to their merchandising strategy

Wake up, Wake up, Government of India

In a recent article about supply chain as also in several other forums I have been talking about how the recent price increase of food articles is hitting the consumers without benefiting the farmers and producers. What does it mean?

The long winded supply chain is possibly the key reason behind the price rise.

The constituents of this chain protect their margin without adding any value and in the light of increasing volumes, the wastage also goes up. So, who ends up paying for it? The consumer. While the poor farmer still gets his meager few rupees per kilo as farm gate prices!

Am I talking through the hat? Not really.

Way back in the late 90’s the price of onions shot up to an extent that the central government was reported to have been shaky due to it. During that period the RPG Foodworld stores sold onions at retail prices which were significantly lower. Was it sold at a loss or at lower margins? Not at all.

Smarter sourcing and better supply chain ensured that the chain was able to offer this value to consumers.

This view has been endorsed by the recent India Today, which talks about how fruit and vegetable prices can be managed and moderated by enabling Indian Retail.

Wake up, Wake up policy and legislation makers. It is time to take Indian Retail forward!

Rural Retail and it’s potential

In one of my earlier articles about supply chain in India, I pointed out how Indian Retailers seem to have a love affair with urban shoppers to the extent that I can even dare to call it a fixation. Rural markets while not so densely populated and lacking the purchasing power of urban ones, compensate through sheer numbers.

My view is that there is a huge 360 degrees opportunity in the rural areas which includes sourcing as well as selling. It is estimated that 2/3rds of the 14 Million Retail outlets are in the semi urban and rural areas. Need I say more about potential?

There is most definitely an unrealised sales potential of the rural and semi-urban markets. Recently an article in “The Hindu Business Line” strongly validated my views and shows the sheer potential of these markets if anyone is ready to venture into them.

The very interestingly written article details a village market and the links to the article and a photo feature of the same is as under.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2010/01/19/stories/2010011951410800.htm"target="blank"

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/todays-paper/tp-life/article1015100.ece

Lastly, if one were to forget these stalls as being independent and separate but look at it as a seamless part of a whole, what do you have?

Voila, a rural hypermarket!

Anyone interested in this opportunity?

An idea whose time has come?

On the 4th of Jan 2010, I got up to face the first working day of the year and decade. After a nice vacation with the family the obvious tinges of blues in the air while I was wading through the news paper. I turned the pages and suddenly my brain went into overdrive and all thoughts of blues or greens vanished when I saw the cartoon as shown below.

I saw this interesting cartoon in “The Hindu” and was struck by how wonderfully the cartoonist has captured the essence of an article of mine “Mobile and Different” which was published last year in May ’09.

- Mobile and Different

Either the cartoonist has read the article and the thought was powerful enough to inspire this cartoon or he has seen and heard of expectations and indications from consumers and vegetable cart sellers and feels that the trends indicate such developments.

Either way, looks like the idea mentioned by me in 2009 is interesting and might even see the light of the day as its time seems to be coming, if not having come!

Cartoon courtesy: The Hindu dated 4th January 2010

2010; Here we come!

Phew, 2009 is almost through and what a year it has been. I am sure everyone would be looking forward to 2010 with a lot of hope and wishes for positive things to happen and hear about.

Although personally 2009 was not too bad and is the year which saw the start of “An Indian and A Retailer” as also its rapid acceptance and widespread popularity as seen from the 10K plus walkins in less than a year. Thanks to all of you for that.

2010 is awaited and everyone might have a wish list or two. May as many wishes as possible come true for everyone. The coming year is expected to be a milestone in terms of how economies manage the recovery, how companies leverage opportunities that are sure to emerge in the recovery phase. Indian Retail is also expected to have an exciting journey and a few things that I expect to happen are –

• Consolidation - either by collaboration or purchase. There is not enough of aggregation of volumes for a true retail play and this might change with either collaboration in the back end or simple M&A.
• Coming of age of the conventional outlets: The humble Kirana proved that their business model is not only sustainable but also recession proof and robust. With increasing awareness and education I am sure that this hardy tribe would leverage their business model to become better and more competitive.
• Beyond ERP: Post the scramble to implement the big bucks ERP everyone was struggling to get it right and in no mood to look at any other IT initiative. A whole host of tactical and strategic IT solutions exists and now is the time for Retailers to start exploring and exploiting such solutions.
• GST? I am not brave enough to predict that GST would come in and change the way trade happens in India. But, I definitely hope that this happens soon and in 2010 itself. As also, I wish that the government starts recognizing Retail as an important industry segment and accords it due recognition and support.

Will sign off 2009 with my Best Wishes to all of you for a Very Happy New Year and hope that all your wishes and plans come true.

What an idea!

Sometime ago while I was browsing in a supermarket I noticed a person checking out products on the shelves and then fiddling with his mobile phone with a stylus. He would again check out something on the shelf and shift his attention back to his mobile. At first I thought he is one of ‘those’, people who are chronically addicted to their mobiles. Having seen increasing instances of such mobile centric behavior, I have a strong thought that human evolution might lead to ears with Bluetooth like capabilities and fingers which are more like the stylus.

Anyways.

Coming back to the story, I realized that the person was actually noting down something from the shelves. I could think of only two possibilities; one being that he was checking the stocks or he was checking the prices and was from a competing store.

(Please overlook the poor quality of the picture as it was taken with my mobile in indoor lighting)

My curiosity was piqued and I approached him to enquire. He was indeed taking stock and also taking down the requirements for each of the SKUs as he was the distributor’s representative. Being very impressed by this use of technology I requested a picture of his devise, which is what one can see here.

It is indeed heartening to see the slow intrusion of such technology into Indian Retail which has typically chosen man power options in the technology vs. people cost benefit analysis.

This person visits the stores, checks the stocks and captures the requirements, goes back to office and updates everything by plugging his phone to a computer. Technically he need not even go to the office and can do this from anywhere by sending it over a call or as a message.

This is just a representative use of technology in retail which is today affordable and helps increase efficiency and productivity. More importantly, the accuracy increases vastly in a context where data accuracy was guestimated to be anywhere from 60% to 80%.

Of course there are myriad such things which can bring about significant operating changes and shall detail a few in the coming posts.

Lastly one should remember why adopting such technologies is considered difficult in the Indian context. It is simply a matter of cost.

Quite a few number of years ago when a new store was being planned, the debate was about having a hand held, radio frequency based device to manage stock receiving, inventory checking, etc. versus having it done manually. Needless to say the manual way won out because the other option costed some 3 or 4 times that of doing it manually. With technology costs coming down (take the case of Netbooks) Indian Retail might find the time right to explore some interesting technological options in several functional areas. However, the fact of the matter is that a device that appears affordable at USD 1,000, might trigger second thoughts because; at INR 45,000 for a 3,000 sq. ft. store, it is Rs. 15 per sq. ft. and the meter starts ticking if multiple such devices are required to make it effective.