Late in the evening on the 24th, I suddenly got a
flurry of SMSes congratulating me about the FDI opening up for multi brand
Retail. I was puzzled and also a bit amused. Puzzled because we are used to
seeing many such decisions being watered down or even rolled back in the face
of a larger issue where FDI regarding Retail might be sacrificed.
Amused, because of the premature celebratory mood. Of course
the fact that the government has at least taken a stand now after going back
and forth for years now is a cause to celebrate but is there enough in this
cabinet decision for such an upbeat mood?
Well, I have my scepticism about this decision.
Firstly, the trend in the past few years has been the
domination of coalition pressures on decisions. I will wait to see whether the adjournment
of parliament extends to the next week and causes enough furore for any
dilution or even roll back of this decision.
Second, this decision has already been announced with a
major catch. The trade and commerce minister has gone on record stating that
the final ground level implementation will be the state government’s
prerogative because trade licenses, especially Shops & Establishment Act
comes under their purview. What exactly does this mean? You are welcome to
bring in big bucks, set up a corporate office and get a senior team in place.
Then, go around to each chief minister to beg & plead to open stores?
Does this sound practical? In the current context only the
Punjab CM has extended support to this decision. Most are silent and obviously
some are vocal in their opposition. This has some very troubling implications.
Second are the various riders. Obviously the powers that be
have very little clue about Retail and many of these conditions seem very food
& grocery Retail specific. For example, take the clause of sourcing a third
of products from 'micro and small industries’. Take Toys as a category which hardly has any noticeable
modern trade presence. If an international operator enters the country, 30% of
their range has to be from local small scale industries or artisans. Sure, you
can include the wooden toys of Srirangapatnam and a few such regional
specialities. Will this add up to 30%? I don’t think so.
Does this enable at least the food and grocery formats
properly? No. Take the other factor of 50% of the investment needs to be in the back end.
Contrast this with the reality of limitations like the APMC legislation, varied
taxation and octroi, etc. What use will this back end be if there are other
constraints that stop such chains from sourcing effectively?
What is the logic of limiting these operators to the top 50
odd towns based on population out of close to 8,000 towns in India? In fact
this is an oxymoron to the arguments for allowing FDI in terms of employment
generation. Should at least a part of these chains be mandated to open in
regions which need local impetus? Then there will be overall growth of that
region.
So, all I can say is so far so good. At least there is now a
decision around which debate can be built and hopefully meaningful improvements
to the policy made.
Lastly, there is an urgent need for experienced Indian Retailers
to be involved in this and not only as providers as opinions. That would ensure
some method to the madness and bring to fore a far more important and pressing
matter.
When is Retail going to be accorded an Industry status?